Hiya everyone – there hasn’t been a moment today when at the supermarket, the coffee shop or even in the high street I haven’t been bombarded with snow questions (tomorrow it could be snow balls…though isn’t throwing them an arrestable offence now?!)
It might have looked pretty this evening but…
Thanks to Nicky for sending in this lovely sunset shot.
…it’s all about to change.
The forecast. The frontal systems bringing this snowy scenario are some of the most complicated I have seen for some time, which to me only means one thing – the forecast is likely to still have some surprises up it’s sleeve. Being in the south east corner of the UK, the little toe in the foot of our island, it is very likely that parts of the south east will see very varying amounts of snow. Perhaps nothing at all, but some places 10cm. But the detail – Righty, here goes:
This is the forecast chart for midday tomorrow (Friday) and here’s a very simple summary of what’s likely to happen. Remember this is a forecast, not a nowcast! The two lilac fronts are heading in from the west carrying all the moisture from the Atlantic. As they hit land they encounter our incredibly cold dry air – which will still be feeding in on strengthening SE’ly winds. So all that moisture will fairly quickly turn to snow in the cold air. The black ‘trough’ line over the North Sea is actually a further bug bear in all this. It’s position means that it slows down the eastwards track of the lilac fronts. Basically it’s in the way, so the lilac snow sisters stall over us. Leading to potentially greater totals of snow…
Click on chart for larger image
Most of us should start off with no snow, but we will have a hard frost, with temperatures once again dipping to minus 6C overnight. The first snow flakes could fall as early as 9am from Crawley to Lewes, and then spread eastwards – possibly snowing in Ashford and Canterbury by midday at the latest. The winds will pick up to 15-20mph, and with a max temp only getting to freezing – if that – it’s going to be bitter. The snow will continue to fall (especially for West Sussex, East Sussex, Surrey and parts of West Kent) throughout the day and temperatures remain cold enough for it to settle. Perhaps if you’re right on the south coast you may see it falling as wet snow/sleet for a time, but there is the chance of snow eventually wherever you are in the south east.
Luckily, the guys at the Met Office have created this map to make things a lot simpler. The south east is less likely to suffer as badly as the rest of the country, but this forecast only covers Friday. We may get more flurries across the weekend too…
If there were any place that may get nothing at all I would say Thanet to Sandwich to Deal and Dover – purely because they’re furthest east, but lets wait and see!
Good luck wherever you’re travelling and whatever you’re doing, and don’t forget to watch South East Today for a full forecast with me tomorrow night. I’ll be on at 630pm and 1030pm Friday 18th January!